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North Korea; Threat, Détente…Peace?
The Nuclear Missile Threat & The Singapore Summit

After the inter-Korean summit at the end of April, a gulf of optimism engulfed the World. The Korean question might be solved peacefully after all! Two weeks later a date was set; June 12 in Singapore. Only to be cancelled again two weeks later at May 24, by US president Trump. At May 26, the North-Korean leader held a surprise meeting with his South-Korean counterpart, president Moon Jae-in, who’s intermediacy might have reignited the US-NK dialogue. Since then the possible summit is on the table again. Although the process of the on-again, off-again summit shows there might be many hurdles on the road ahead.

North Korean leader, Kim Jung-un’s, trump card is the claimed ability to attack the US-mainland with a nuclear-tipped ICBM. “Unacceptable”, according to the president of the United States. Hence his demand for “denuclearization”. Judging the validity of the NK- claim from the outside is difficult. Nonetheless, that is exactly what we will do in this seminar. Any informed policy towards North Korea should start with a sound technical analysis of their missile program and the ability to produce a reliable nuclear warhead. This is the only way to make a realistic assessment of the NK- threat & leverage. This approach should also appeal to military planners and policymakers, because it will show how much room is left for a military or a political solution.

Please note: to comfort / reassure the non-engineers in the audience, the technical analysis will be presented in a way, so it will be understandable to
the broader public.

After setting the scene by a technical assessment of the North Korean nuclear missile threat, the military options will be investigated. Finally, the geopolitical context of the North Korean case and the likelihood of a negotiated settlement will be explored.

The Chatham House Rule applies.

Bron afbeelding: (CC BY-SA 2.0)licentie''Stephan'

Locatie

KIVI gebouw

Prinsessegracht 23, Den Haag

Organisator

Defensie en Veiligheid

Naam en contactgegevens voor informatie

Marjolein de Wit - Blok

mw@kividv.nl

Extended programme