KIVI position paper to contribute to debate on impact of technological developments in digital society
3 April 2023 Download a PDF here
This Position Paper was prepared by our Computer Science Department in cooperation with the Council for Science, Technology and Society (RWTM). The document has been prepared based on publicly available documents and knowledge and experience in the field of informatics. The content covers technological or related aspects only. Developments in IT are rapid. Data and developments in this paper are current as of April 2023.
The position paper provides recommendations to politicians and government on the main concerns and risks in further development of the Metaverse.
The Metaverse
In 2014, Facebook bought Virtual Reality company Oculus. Among other things, Oculus makes Virtual Reality headsets: a helmet with built-in displays (one for each eye) and speakers. The helmet can give the user the impression of being in an alternate reality, called Virtual Reality (VR).
At the end of 2021, Facebook announced that they were going to focus entirely on the Metaverse. As the largest social media platform at the time, they even changed their own name, from Facebook to Meta, indicating their full commitment.
Questions arose in the standing parliamentary digital affairs committee about the development on the Metaverse. Could the Metaverse lead to a monopoly position for Meta? Could it lead to abuse or illegal activities? Should the legislature step in to regulate or encourage? In response, a KIVI position paper was requested from the IT department.
The company Meta had a vision where in the future people will interact with each other in a virtual world. This would go beyond VR: individual VR applications would be connected to each other via the Internet. This could then form a computer-generated virtual environment, in which many participants could enter and interact with each other simultaneously.
They called this virtual world the Metaverse. The Metaverse would have fewer limitations than the real world and more possibilities. It also offers the possibility of social interaction, while perhaps leading to abusive or illegal activities. Some people are concerned about these developments.
Two years after the Meta posts, it might be time to take a look at how things are going. Meta's ambition has so far failed to materialise. Sales are disappointing, there are few users and the company has recently had to drastically cut staff. Disney and Microsoft have also recently indicated they are going to downsize the Metaverse division.
Still, the underlying technology is here to stay and the social implications are significant. The question then is whether, and if so to what extent, the government could encourage that development and if-and-how it should regulate in the Metaverse area.
Technological developments
A number of past initiatives may give an indication for the future.
First of all, there was an early (simple) VR social platform. Back in 2003, SecondLife was founded. SecondLife is a virtual environment where users can enter and interact with other users. A first version of the Metaverse, in other words. After 20 years of development, this platform has about 1 million users. An insignificant number (on a global scale).
A second platform that gained some notoriety, also in the Netherlands, was Habbo-hotel. This platform was aimed more at children and became very popular in a short time. Meanwhile, its popularity has seriously shrunk, also due to reports of abuse through the platform.
The game Grand Theft Auto (GTA) is a virtual world in which participants indulge in crimes that would be punishable in reality. In this Metaverse, such behaviour is possible and even encouraged. It is very popular to date.
Another technical development that may give an indication of user acceptance is the development of 3D television and film. Available in cinemas to date, 3D television, although available for a long time, has never been a decisive success. Although hardly more expensive than ordinary television, users were not willing to put on simple 3D glasses to watch a film. So are users going to wear a (much larger) VR helmet and perhaps even set up the necessary special rooms?
On the other hand, apart from a Metaverse, VR could well develop further. Think of applications such as:
- Gaming: Most popular game is Counter-Strike (a war simulation game)
- Training: general inexpensive training, but also for infrequent situations such as aeroplane simulations (including emergencies), car driver's licence training, war situations or medical special operations.
- Design: walking through a building in VR that has not yet been built in order to assess the design
- Scenario simulation: playing through "what-if" situations. Also with whole teams of people.
- Travel: visiting other places in a VR environment
- Meetings (remote work): a VR version of online work for a more direct effect
- Fitness: exercising together in VR. Think cycling together or team sports-from-home
- ...and many other applications
VR development is rapid and for specific applications it could well be appropriate. From these specific applications, it might then only be a small step to connect these applications into a Metaverse.
The Metaverse already exists
We all already live partly online. Many services are still only available online. This applies to both government services and services offered by companies. We also work more and more online.
For many people, online reputation is already almost more important than personal appearance in their immediate surroundings. People sometimes have friends they have never met in reality. Personal search results and presence on social media determine a large part of someone's' success. And success itself is often measured online these days. Apart from life events, for example, holiday photos are often shared on social media.
Office work is becoming increasingly remote. Many office workers work up to 100% of the time online. They have meetings with people at long distances and do the rest of the work at home.
From this perspective, the Metaverse already exists and we already live in it. Mostly without a VR helmet, but at least almost everyone is already there. So is the next step a Metaverse with a VR environment?
The next step in online
It looks like the trend towards more online is not going to stop. We will do more and more online. In that light, it is not hard to imagine that there will indeed be applications for a connected VR environment, which we could then call Metaverse.
Developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) will augment VR's technological capabilities and enable an increasingly realistic online experience.
However, there will not be one Metaverse, but more likely multiple VR environments will start to be offered (compare Google meet vs Microsoft teams). A monopoly position for Meta seems unlikely at the moment.
Analysis
A monopoly position of one party as supplier of a Metaverse does not seem likely at this time. Anticipating this therefore seems unnecessary for the time being but should be watched as a possible development.
The controllability of the online world is much greater than that of the physical world ever was. Government and enforcement get a view of people's behaviour that was previously unavailable and that makes enforcement much more possible. At the same time, it raises political questions about privacy.
These questions will become more pressing as society moves inexorably in a direction with an ever-growing online component. Politicians might realise that legislation can and will be more easily and strictly enforced due to technological developments, and could therefore build some more individual freedom and leniency into legislation.
For now, the Metaverse is not a specific threat other than the internet and social media. Further development towards online does increase privacy and security risks.
Recommendations
- Monitor developments regularly, paying attention to the development of monopoly situations, any large commercial standards that may lead to this and to what extent an open market is developing
- Monitor developments specifically in the area of security and privacy and intervene administratively or legally if necessary
- Realise that the online world is much more controllable than activities, which in the past took place behind front doors, back rooms and in the woods. On the basis of further technical and social developments, control and enforcement can thereby be further expanded within legal and democratic boundaries. To a large extent fully automated and supported by AI
https://tech.facebook.com/reality-labs/2021/10/connect-2021-our-vision-for-the-metaverse/
