On 19-09-2023 PLB reports Climate target 2030 in sight for first time; fast and ambitious elaboration of plans crucial: With the plans in the Spring Climate Paper, the now outgoing cabinet is taking a major step forward towards realising the statutory target of 55 per cent less greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 compared to 1990. Dutch and European plans that are concrete enough for an impact estimate provide an additional 5 percentage points of emission reduction compared to last year's estimate. Thus, a 46 to 57 per cent reduction is possible. But to tap the upper end of this range and thus meet the target, everything has to go right, including non-controllable factors such as weather and electricity imports. This is according to the Climate and Energy Outlook (KEV) 2023.
No effect without concreteness
Of the climate plans that are not concrete enough for an impact estimate, the government expected 10 megatonCO2 equivalents(over 4 percentage points) of additional emission reductions in the Spring Memorandum. If these plans are also timely, concrete and maximised, the climate target of 55 per cent emission reduction by 2030 will come within reach with greater certainty. But it is important to realise that a measure can only be effective if it is worked out and implemented in time.
Fast and ambitious elaboration and implementation needed
To meet the climate target with sufficient certainty, it is very important to elaborate and implement all climate plans as quickly and ambitiously as possible. Delays caused by elections and formation of a new cabinet (and by possible changes in agendized plans) pose an additional threat to meeting this target. The room for manoeuvre until 2030 is very limited. Many measures also require the right framework conditions to be created. This requires flanking policies: adaptation of laws and regulations and their enforcement, and faster licensing for the construction of the necessary energy infrastructure already planned. There must also be sufficient skilled personnel to implement plans.
Significantly higher power consumption, but infrastructure runs into limits
Thanks to higher electricity demand mainly in mobility and industry (partly due to a shift from petrol cars to electric cars), the new plans increase estimated electricity consumption to 138 to 159 terawatt hours in 2030. This is more than 10 per cent higher than in last year's estimate. Power generation is also growing, including an additional 4 to 13 terawatt hours of production by solar panels. At the same time, the extent to which the energy infrastructure can still facilitate further emission reductions before 2030 is questionable. Realisation of additional infrastructure projects, not yet included in grid operators' investment plans, is no longer readily conceivable before 2030. For instance, infrastructure for electricity supply and industry is an undeniable bottleneck.
Emission targets most sectors in sight, except for agriculture
In the Spring Climate Memorandum, the Rutte IV government set indicative emission targets for each sector. For the electricity, industry, built environment and mobility sectors, these targets are within the ranges of estimated emissions in 2030. The greatest progress compared to last year is made in the mobility sector (mainly due to more biofuel and kilometre pricing) and the built environment (standards for heat pumps and making buildings with poor energy labels more sustainable). Only for agriculture and land use are the sector targets out of reach with the calculated plans. The National Rural Area Programme (NPLG) with a target reduction of 4 megatons is not concrete enough to calculate. The NPLG is also important for meeting the target from the National Methane Strategy: 30 per cent less methane emissions in 2030 than in 2020. The calculated plans in this KEV amount to a 17-25 per cent reduction of this powerful greenhouse gas.
ESA target within reach
In the European Emissions Trading System ETS for industry and electricity, no new allowances will become available in 2040, while 62 per cent fewer allowances will be in circulation in 2030 than in 2005. For sectors outside the ETS (mobility, built environment and agriculture), the European Effort Sharing Regulation (ESA) sets a cumulative target for each country. This target does not apply per sector, but to the sectors collectively. For the Netherlands, this comes out to 833 megatonnes ofCO2 equivalents for the period 2021 to 2030. With an estimate of 794 to 834 megatons, the target for the ESA sectors is within reach. Here, the earlier a measure takes effect, the longer the cumulative effect counts. Speed is thus rewarded under the ESA target and delay is risky.
Emissions sharply lower last year due to high gas prices and mild winter
Greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, at 158 megatonnes ofCO2 equivalents, were 14 megatonnes lower than a year earlier. This put greenhouse gas emissions 31 per cent below 1990 levels; down from 25 per cent a year earlier. Higher gas prices and a mild winter are the main reasons for the decline. As a result, considerably less gas was consumed in industry and greenhouse horticulture, which even came to a partial halt, and in the built environment. The mild winter was responsible for almost half of the 22 per cent lower gas consumption by households.
Slightly different KEV than other years
KEV 2023 broadly updates the estimates from KEV 2022 and presents one new estimate for greenhouse gas emissions for 2030. This includes climate policy changes with a substantial effect in 2030. This includes both concrete implemented policies (adopted and planned) and plans not yet fully implemented (listed policies). In previous years, an estimate with purely concrete elaborated policies was the core of the KEV; an impact estimate of less elaborated (agenda-driven) policies was added separately. KEV 2023 appears in two parts. On Budget Day, a first part with estimates for greenhouse gas emissions will be published at the request of the cabinet at the same time as the Budget Memorandum. On 26 October, the full KEV will be published including estimates for energy saving and renewable energy.
The KEV as a monitoring and accountability tool
Based on the Climate Act, the annual Climate and Energy Outlook is one of the accountability instruments of Dutch climate and energy policy. The KEV also monitors progress. The KEV is prepared by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) in close cooperation with TNO, CBS and RIVM, and with contributions from RVO and WUR.
