In the system study 'II3050', Netbeheer Nederland outlines four different scenarios, which provide insight into how we as a society can grow towards a climate-neutral energy system in 2050. The main message: our energy system is rapidly moving from a 'demand-oriented energy system' to a 'supply-oriented energy system'. Sharp political choices are therefore needed today for tomorrow's energy system.
The transition from fossil to only sustainably generated energy in the climate-neutral energy system means that we in the Netherlands need to match energy demand and supply even better and embrace flexible use of energy. Grid operators must use their time, technicians and equipment as efficiently as possible towards 2050 to maintain security of supply and meet climate targets.
"This scenario study is the most comprehensive study done by grid operators. More than 100 parties were spoken to for the report. I therefore invite all stakeholders to use the scenario study for their own future studies" states Hans-Peter Oskam, director of Policy and Energy Transition at Netbeheer Nederland. "II3050 forms the basis of our investments in the coming years. It outlines the development path from 2030 to a climate-neutral 2050. Much additional capacity is needed to meet future energy demand with renewable energy. This requires sharp political choices for the design of the energy system. Choices for the future that must be made now."
"If we want to be climate-neutral in the Netherlands by 2050, all sectors that emit CO₂, such as agriculture, industry air and freight traffic and the built environment, will also have an important role to play. They must do their part and meet own sector targets on time."
Energy sector in top gear to achieve CO₂ ambitions 2050
All scenarios assume that the goal of being climate neutral by 2050 will be achieved. Several challenges emerge from the scenarios. The following three stand out:
Flexibility becomes the new normal
The next phase of the energy transition has arrived, in which all users of the sustainable energy system must play an active role. This also means that 'flex', or flexible use of available energy, is necessary. It must become the new normal to use electricity when there is plenty available, because the sun is shining or there is a lot of wind, and to moderate use when less energy is available. The hydrogen and heat system also need this flexibility. Think of electrolysers to make enough hydrogen and storage in caverns to store hydrogen. This is not a 2050 vision, but is already in play in the 2030 energy system.
During the transition to climate-neutral 2050, capacity is not available everywhere or expansion can be requested
Grid operators are investing to the maximum to expand grids, but demand is growing faster than supply. Our existing grids are already reaching their limits. After large companies, consumers and small and medium-sized enterprises (with a small consumer connection), are also more often faced with an electricity grid that is getting fuller. This means priorities have to be set and we have to accept that not everything can be done in the short term. The less energy needs to be transported, the better. So the closer the generation location is to where the energy is used, the better.
Choices are needed as to which energy-intensive basic industry fits into the climate-neutral Netherlands of 2050
The location climate, industrial policy and tailor-made agreements are important for what energy-intensive industry does: invest and implement new processes or (partially) leave the Netherlands. Because of the large share of energy demand in the Netherlands (over 40%) by energy-intensive industry, the industry's choice is very decisive for the development of the energy system as a whole and infrastructure in particular.
Network operators are making maximum efforts to realise the infrastructure needed to achieve CO₂ reduction target in 2030. A sustainable energy system requires more choices in who, where and how(much) can use the energy network. Distribution over time will also be needed. Because of scarcity of grid capacity and the resources needed to develop energy infrastructure (time, spatial planning, personnel, materials and financing), it is extra important to have a keen understanding of this.
About II3050: Follow-up to scenario report
The scenario report presented today provides direction for everyone working in the energy transition. "The choices for the energy system of the future must be made today rather than tomorrow," Oskam said. That is why the joint grid operators are already sharing these scenarios, underlying data and expertise for general use now.
The interim report does not yet address the impact the scenarios will have on the energy infrastructure. This impact for costs, space, manpower and materials will be outlined in the final report to be delivered by the end of 2023
Click here for the scenario report 'The energy system of the future'
