Press release from NAL and ELAADNL

Study maps out the expected growth in electric mobility and its implications for the charging infrastructure and the electricity grid

Commissioned by the National Charging Infrastructure Agenda (NAL), researchers at ElaadNL have mapped out the expected growth of electric mobility in the Netherlands. They expect the growth in electric cars, vans, lorries and construction vehicles to continue apace in both the short and longer term. The researchers also examined the impact of this growth on charging infrastructure and the electricity grid. Charging infrastructure will need to expand accordingly, and the electricity grid will need to be utilised intelligently during periods of grid congestion. The researchers see good opportunities for this. The results of the study form an important basis for policy and the future plans of public authorities and grid operators.

The Mobility Outlook examines the expected growth in electric passenger cars, logistics vehicles (vans and lorries) and construction machinery. In terms of energy demand, this accounts for around 90 per cent of all mobility. According to the researchers, by 2050 the entire passenger car fleet of 11 million vehicles will be electric, as will the entire fleet of 1.2 million vans. Of the 210,000 lorries on the road in 2050, 90 per cent are expected to be fully electric. Differences are anticipated in the construction sector: light machinery will be 100 per cent electric by then, whilst heavy machinery will be largely electric.

Electricity Demand is Rising

Taken together, the categories of vehicles examined will account for electricity demand of 51.8 TWh in 2050. Netbeheer Nederland’s medium scenario (Steady Mid-Course) forecasts that total electricity consumption in 2050 will reach 505 TWh, meaning that mobility will account for just over 10 per cent of this. By way of comparison, in 2025 total electricity consumption in the Netherlands was 116 TWh, of which 4 TWh was for mobility (3.5%). The researchers also looked at where electric vehicles will be charged. They expect a combination of various locations, including charging at home, at work and at (heavy-duty) charging stations.

Grid congestion, grid-aware charging and V2G analysed

A new feature of this Mobility Outlook, compared with previous editions, is that it quantifies the impact of grid congestion. The study examined the use of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles and the resulting load on the electricity grid. And this analysis offers some perspective. For example, the researchers have developed a range of potential additional public charging demand that the current charging network can accommodate if, due to grid congestion, there is no grid capacity available for new charging infrastructure. This could be achieved, for example, by increasing utilisation rates and installing additional charging infrastructure without creating extra demand for grid capacity.

The strain that mobility places on the electricity grid can be significantly reduced by charging electric vehicles on weekdays largely outside peak hours (4.00 pm and 9.00 pm). The researchers investigated which charging sessions could be (partly) shifted to outside peak hours without causing any inconvenience to EV drivers. How does this work?

When vehicles remain connected to a charging point for longer than the actual charging time, the electricity demand from the charging session can be (partly) shifted to outside peak hours. This flexibility is unique to electric mobility and, according to the researchers’ calculations, could provide the energy system with up to 6.7 GW (gigawatts) of flexible capacity during the evening peak in 2050.

In addition, in the coming years, an increasing number of cars will not only be able to charge but also feed power back into the home or the electricity grid (bidirectional charging or V2G). When the potential of bidirectional home charging is factored into the calculations, the potential flexibility of electric mobility theoretically rises to as much as 11.2 GW. In this way, electric mobility presents an opportunity when the electricity grid is overloaded.

It is essential to make the most of flexibility

Based on current knowledge, researchers at ElaadNL estimate that the predicted growth in electric mobility may still be achievable despite grid congestion. This can be achieved by making optimal use of existing and new charging infrastructure, shifting charging demand to a different type of charging location, and utilising flexibility potential. However, utilising this flexibility does require clear preconditions, such as standardisation, interoperability between systems, appropriate incentives for users and effective cooperation between grid operators, public authorities and market players. Without these preconditions, a significant portion of the potential will remain untapped.

Marieke Donkervoort, independent chair of the NAL: “Studies such as this are valuable because they provide insight into where the challenges and key considerations lie with regard to the roll-out of charging infrastructure in the near and slightly more distant future. Grid congestion is also a complex challenge for charging infrastructure, requiring smart solutions and close cooperation between the government, grid operators and market players. Of all charging transactions, 57% are already ‘smart’. With smart charging as the norm and bidirectional charging within reach, EVs are making a significant contribution to a future-proof energy system. It is good to see that all these parties are genuinely working together to ensure that the charging infrastructure grows responsibly in line with increasing demand. That won’t always be easy, but there is great potential.”

New opportunities and insights

The researchers at ElaadNL have produced Outlook reports in the past. What is new about this Mobility Outlook is that it has been coordinated not only with the grid operators but also with the NAL regions and the central government. As a result, it has become an integral NAL product with broad support. Furthermore, plug-in hybrids have now been included in the forecasts. In addition to the longer term, which previous Outlook reports focused on primarily, greater attention is now also being paid to the shorter term. Moreover, users (public authorities, grid operators) can zoom in on a specific neighbourhood or area. This is useful, for example, for local policymakers who want to know how many public charging points are needed in their municipality.

Another key advantage is that this Outlook is not limited to a single sector, such as passenger cars or e-trucks, but takes a holistic approach. The comprehensive analysis of the various transport modes (passenger cars, vans, lorries and construction machinery) also provides new insights. For example, it shows where there is overlap in the use of charging infrastructure and whether there are opportunities to switch between charging locations. For instance, construction vehicles and e-lorries can sometimes make use of the same fast-charging infrastructure.

You can find the interactive Mobility Outlook here: https://outlook.elaad.nl/

About the NAL

Since 2019,the National Charging Infrastructure Agenda (NAL) has been working to ensure that the development of charging infrastructure in the Netherlands keeps pace with the roll-out of all types of electric transport. All electric vehicle drivers must be able to charge their vehicles safely and efficiently, anytime, anywhere. Not just on their own driveways, but also in public spaces, on industrial estates and at petrol stations. Without overloading the electricity grid.

About ElaadNL

The ElaadNL knowledge and innovation centre researches and tests smart and sustainable charging of electric vehicles. ElaadNL is an initiative of the Dutch Network Operators’ Association. Through their joint involvement in ElaadNL, the network operators are preparing for a future of electric driving and sustainable charging.